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st maarten r r josephson commerce twp michigan marysvale utah obituaries fractions in recipes fukuda denshi telemetry slave monitor xcel energy investor relations gs-12 49cc rocky superbike mini motorcycle destiny teen models clips stick world adventure game sunshades mermet faa approved johann hoegg free sex fetish images the water engine david mamet synopsis gene shatlock comcast porter county sherrif website copy lvm partitions buskro tabber ship picture usn pudong area a usions in fahrenheit 451 continentaleconomics.com Blog http://continentaleconomics.com/blog A discussion forum on money, markets and the business cycle Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:47:31 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.2 en Unemployment on the rise http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/20/unemployment-on-the-rise/ http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/20/unemployment-on-the-rise/#comments Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:47:31 +0000 Administrator Uncategorized http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/20/unemployment-on-the-rise/ Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) — First-time claims for U.S. unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose last week to the highest level since 1992, a sign the labor market is deteriorating as the economic slump deepens.

Initial jobless claims increased by 27,000 to a higher- than-forecast 542,000 in the week ended Nov. 15, from 515,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The number of people staying on benefit rolls the prior week rose to 4.012 million, the most since December 1982.

Job losses in the U.S. have totaled 1.2 million this year as the economy entered a downturn exacerbated by the worst credit crisis in seven decades. More firings will weigh on the economy and consumer spending, putting pressure on President- elect Barack Obama and Congress to agree on legislation that will stimulate growth…–
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=axoMU2lh.goE&refer=economies
Comment: The vicious cycle is now in full swing and once it is turning, there won’t be an escape from the downward spiral for a long time. The only thing to wonder about is our leaders’ talent for ignorance - be in government or at the central bank or you name it.
Antony Mueller

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Keynes is back again http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/20/keynes-is-back-again/ http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/20/keynes-is-back-again/#comments Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:43:58 +0000 Administrator Uncategorized http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/20/keynes-is-back-again/ Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) — … John Maynard Keynes, has been pulled on the stage. Keynes taught that spending, especially spending by consumers, is the way out of a slowdown. From last summer’s small stimulus checks to the infrastructure projects under consideration by President-elect Barack Obama and congressional Democrats, almost everything the government has done or wants to do is justified by Keynes.

That’s problematic. For Keynesian solutions often fail to deliver good or even acceptable results.

The limits start showing up with the tiniest of stimuli, those government checks Americans received in the mail last spring. The idea was that having the cash would cheer up consumers so that they would start shopping again, helping retailers. That in turn would revive wholesalers, shippers, suppliers — on up the production line.

But that stimulus failed, as the University of Michigan’s Joel Slemrod and Matthew Shapiro noted. Interviews with consumers showed that only a fifth said they would spend their cash…–

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Financial Crisis Balance Sheet http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/18/financial-crisis-balance-sheet/ http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/18/financial-crisis-balance-sheet/#comments Tue, 18 Nov 2008 15:48:47 +0000 Administrator Uncategorized http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/18/financial-crisis-balance-sheet/



 

Government Entity

Sum in Billions of Dollars

Federal Reserve

(TAF) Term Auction Facility

900

Discount Window Lending

Commercial Banks

99.2

Investment Banks

56.7

Loans to buy ABCP

76.5

AIG

112.5

Bear Stearns

29.5

(TSLF) Term Securities Lending Facility

225

Swap Lines

613

(MMIFF) Money Market Investor Funding Facility

540

Commercial Paper Funding Facility

257

(TARP) Treasury Asset Relief Program

700

Other:

Automakers

25

(FHA) Federal Housing Administration

300

Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac

350

Total

4284.5

 

Note: Figures as of Nov. 13, 2008

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27719011

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Strange moves http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/18/strange-moves/ http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/18/strange-moves/#comments Tue, 18 Nov 2008 15:16:12 +0000 Administrator Uncategorized http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/18/strange-moves/ Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) — International demand for U.S. financial assets rose more than economists forecast in September as China surpassed Japan to become the biggest foreign holder of Treasuries. Total net purchases of long-term equities, notes and bonds increased a net $66.2 billion in September from $21 billion the previous month, the Treasury said today in Washington. Including short-term securities such as stock swaps, foreigners bought a net $143.4 billion, compared with net buying of $21.4 billion the month before…–

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Collapse of foreign funding http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/16/collapse-of-foreign-funding/ http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/16/collapse-of-foreign-funding/#comments Sun, 16 Nov 2008 20:40:24 +0000 Administrator Uncategorized http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/16/collapse-of-foreign-funding/ Graph: Foreign Assets in the U.S.: Net, Capital Inflow {+} ]]> http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/16/collapse-of-foreign-funding/feed/ US creditworthiness http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/16/us-creditworthiness/ http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/16/us-creditworthiness/#comments Sun, 16 Nov 2008 11:28:05 +0000 Administrator Uncategorized http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/16/us-creditworthiness/ Randall W. Forsyth explains why the US government can’t borrow trillions without paying a price:
“… But what happens if the requests begin to strain the credit line of the world’s most creditworthy borrower, the U.S. government itself? Unthinkable?

American International Group (ticker: AIG), which originally had to borrow what was a stunning $85 billion from the Fed to keep it from cratering in September, upped the total Sunday to $150 billion.

Monday, Fannie Mae (FNM) reported a $29 billion third-quarter loss, far in excess of forecasts, raising the specter that the mortgage giant may need more money after the Treasury pledged to inject $100 billion in preferred stock financing in September.

Meanwhile, American Express (AXP) received Fed approval to convert to a bank holding company, joining the likes of Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS), that have a direct pipeline to borrow from the Fed or the Treasury’s TARP, the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.

And, of course, Detroit is looking for a credit line from Washington. General Motors (GM) Friday warned it could run out of cash next year without a government loan. GM plunged another 23% Monday, to 3.36, as several analysts helpfully recommended selling shares of the beleaguered auto maker that already had lost more than 85% of their value…–

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB122633310980913759.html

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Reforming the world’s financial order http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/15/reforming-the-worlds-financial-order/ http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/15/reforming-the-worlds-financial-order/#comments Sat, 15 Nov 2008 01:25:55 +0000 Administrator Uncategorized http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/15/reforming-the-worlds-financial-order/ Antony Mueller:
Reforming the World’s Financial Order. Institutional and Theoretical Aspects
————————————————————
Abstract
Modern financial markets are characterized by rapid innovation and expansion as well as intensive internationalization. The liberalization of capital markets since the 1980s has been accompanied by a shift from structural regulations towards prudential supervision along with endeavors to establish international norms on capital adequacy. During the same period, the markets have been hit by a series of crises, which have caused concern that more strict and direct controls are warranted.

This paper argues that although liberalized capital markets do in some way possess an inherent tendency towards instability, almost all cases of severe disturbances in the international capital markets are the result of excessively expansive fiscal and monetary policies, which at some point had to give way to a sharp liquidity contraction. In order to stabilize the system, the monetary and fiscal authorities quite often accelerated expansive measures, exposing investors, lenders and borrowers to misleading interest rate and price signals which resulted in a postponement of the adaptation process and in a number of cases to the prolongation of stagnation. Given the international integration of modern financial markets, misplaced monetary and fiscal policies cause various international spillover effects. Repeated bailouts of borrowers and creditors by central banks, governments and international institutions have led to the persistence of moral hazard as the assumption of implicit guarantees to stabilize financial markets has lowered the perception of risk and resulted in over-exposure.

This analysis leads to the conclusion that while more strict regulations might be applied to off-balance financial innovations and that capital adequacy norms should be more strictly enforced on an international level, further direct control seems to bring more harm than good and deflect the attention from the causes of financial instability which are the inadequate control of liquidity.”

Fonte: http://www.iwp.uni-koeln.de/DE/Publikationen/zfw/1-01/mueller.htm

Reforming the World Financial Order. Institutional and Theoretical Aspects .
Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik 50 (2001), Nr. 1, pp. 15-34

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Before the fall http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/14/before-the-fall-2/ http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/14/before-the-fall-2/#comments Fri, 14 Nov 2008 22:04:33 +0000 Administrator Uncategorized http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/14/before-the-fall-2/ Dollar’s Days Numbered; Buy Commodities: Jim Rogers
JIM ROGERS, INVESTING, COMMODITIES, DOLLAR, STOCKS, INVESTMENT, ADVICE
CNBC.com | 14 Nov 2008 | 09:52 AM ET
Commodities are one of the only viable investment opportunities left and are set to rebound as demand problems take hold, while the outlook for the dollar is bleak, famed investor Jim Rogers said Friday.

The dollar’s days as the world’s reserve currency are numbered, Rogers said at the World Money Show conference in London.

The greenback faces serious devaluation as spiraling national debt and a worsening economic crisis undermine it, he said.

America’s growing debt problem is “out of control” and Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke’s strategy of printing money is a “terrible policy,” he said.

Bernanke “does not understand economics, he does not understand markets … he is going to run those printing presses until we run out of trees,” he added…–
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27717135/print/1/displaymode/1098/

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Money going up in smoke http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/14/money-going-up-in-smoke/ http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/14/money-going-up-in-smoke/#comments Fri, 14 Nov 2008 14:41:59 +0000 Administrator Uncategorized http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/14/money-going-up-in-smoke/ John Kemp wonders: “… The Fed has grown its balance sheet from $884 billion to $2.055 trillion in the space of two months and extended almost $1 trillion in additional support to the banking system through the various emergency lending programs enacted or expanded over the last year.

But precious little of this additional liquidity is finding its way through to households and corporate borrowers. In fact, most of it is now sloshing around the banking system like so much excess ballast.

Banks have increased their reserve holdings on deposit with the Fed from $8 billion to $494 billion. This is $488 billion more than the Fed estimates they would ordinarily need to hold for payment clearing and prudential purposes.

Increased reserve holdings have absorbed perhaps half of the liquidity placed into the banking system from the Fed. Much of the rest has almost certainly been invested into the mountain of Treasury bills the U.S Treasury has been issuing. Only a very small proportion is left for re-lending to the real economy…”–
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2008/11/13/tarp-and-fed-facilities-unravel/

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Burning money http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/14/burning-money/ http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/14/burning-money/#comments Fri, 14 Nov 2008 13:13:21 +0000 Administrator Uncategorized http://continentaleconomics.com/blog/2008/11/14/burning-money/ Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) — Freddie Mac asked the Treasury for $13.8 billion after a record quarterly loss caused its net worth to fall below zero.

The third-quarter net loss widened to $25.3 billion, or $19.44 a share, McLean, Virginia-based Freddie said in a regulatory filing today. The losses forced Freddie to request government funds and the company said it expects to receive the money by Nov. 29…–
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2cWgMcVMLGw&refer=home

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